Northern Virginia Real Estate: Vienna, Oakton, McLean, Great Falls, Reston, Fairfax, and surrounding areas.

Real estate is HYPER-LOCAL. What is happening in Vienna or Reston may be very different than what is happening in Arlington or Oakton. And what was happening last week may be very different than what is happening this week.

So what are we seeing in the Vienna & Oakton markets this week?

• Inventory is slightly up in Oakton - while inventory in Vienna is at its lowest level since late March.
• Average days on market remains fairly stable.
• After three weeks in a row of 6 contracts per week in Oakton, we only saw 4 contracts ratified this past week.
• Vienna’s contract rate (13) was not as low as last week (9), but it was still tied for the 2nd lowest number of contracts in a week since mid-February.
• We still appear to be in a fairly balanced market (3-6 months supply) in both Vienna and Oakton

Here are last week’s stats for Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 13
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 115 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 36 days
• Inventory: 239 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 3.1 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 3.4 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 4
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 109 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 123 days
• Inventory: 86 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 5.1 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 4.5 months

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, contact The Belt Team for a more in-depth discussion & analysis - because it’s only the neighborhood YOU live in (or you WANT to live in) that matters!

Should I use an online estimator (like Zillow) to estimate the value of a home I am considering buying or selling?

We are often asked by homeowners (and potential homeowners) about the information they find on Zillow.com. Zillow provides something they call a “Zestimate” for every property in their database - whether it’s for sale or not. They come up with these estimates of value by aggregating information from various public databases - tax records, value trends, etc and then they use a proprietary formula to make a calculation.

Zillow is very popular with both Home Buyers and Home Sellers. Buyers moving to Northern Virginia often preview listings on Zillow before they come to actually see homes. And they often want to make their offers on homes based upon what they see in Zillow as the “Zestimate”. We also frequently meet with prospective Sellers in Northern Virginia who have looked at Zillow and assume the “Zestimate” is an accurate forecast of what their home will sell for.

Well - this year, The Belt Team decided to track the “Zestimates” for each home we sold so that we could see how they compared to actual sales prices. And while this is by no means a scientific study of all homes in Northern Virginia - we think it’s rather representative. (The Belt Team ranks in the Top Ten most productive Realtors out of 10,000+ Realtors in the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.)

So . . . what did we find?

A LOT of variation!

• One of our resale listings sold for 41% MORE than the Zestimate - $266,500 additional for this particular Seller. And another sold for 15% less than the Zestimate. In fact, 90% of our listings sold for well over the “Zestimate” and 43% of our listings sold for more than 6% above the “Zestimate”.

• In addition, our new construction listings all sold for huge amounts over the “Zestimate”. This illustrates one of many flaws in their calculations. Since the assessed value of a property is one of the significant factors in the “Zestimate”, this obviously does not make sense when a new home is being built on an existing property.

• On the Buyer side, 29% of the Buyers we represented paid well BELOW the “Zestimate”. One Buyer we represented paid $103,500 below the “Zestimate”. The reverse was true as well, as one Buyer in a partuclarly popular area buying a “unique” home paid 25% more than the “Zestimate”.

Now, Zillow does say on its web site: “When it comes to unique homes (e.g., luxury mansions, unusual designs) we are less accurate in our Zestimates.” So the conclusion we draw is that while Zillow might be a good estimator for “cookie-cutter nieghborhoods & tract homes”, those mostly do not exist in Northern Virginia. If you are looking to buy or sell a home here, it’s definitely in your best interest to find a Realtor to represent you - one who is especially familiar with the neighborhood you want to buy or sell in!

And P.S. - This post is not meant to “bash” Zillow. In fact, we are one of Zillow’s Showcase advertisers and have been profiled & participating with Zillow for years. All of our listings are advertised on Zillow and we generate many buyers through our ads there. So Zillow does have value for Buyers and Sellers - we just want you to be clear on how you interpret the information you gather there!

Contact The Belt Team if you would like us to walk through your home with you and  discuss market value OR if you are a prospective Buyer who would like The Belt Team to represent you. It would be our pleasure to help make your real estate dremas come true. WE SPECIALIZE IN SUCCESS STORIES!

Here are last week’s stats for Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 9
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 112 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 143 days
• Inventory: 240 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 3.0 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 3.2 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 6
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 115 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 50 days
• Inventory: 82 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 3.6 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 3.8 months

Notes:

• Inventory in both Vienna & Oakton is down slightly this week - with inventory in Vienna at its lowest level since early May.
• Average days on market remained stable.
• The contract rate in Oakton remained stable, while Vienna’s contract rate is the lowest we have seen in 2010 (tied with the contract rate of the week ending February 9th)!
• Last week we wondered whether increased open house attendance meant more “Real Buyers” or whether they were “Lookie-Loos”. Based on the contract rate this week, it seems like they are still “just looking”.

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, contact The Belt Team for a more in-depth discussion & analysis - because it’s only the neighborhood YOU live in (or you WANT to live in) that matters!

Here are last week’s stats for Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 17
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 112 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 54 days
• Inventory: 242 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 2.9 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 2.8 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 6
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 113 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 64 days
• Inventory: 84 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 4.1 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 4.4 months

Notes:

• Inventory in both Vienna & Oakton is down slightly this week. Inventory in Vienna is at its lowest level since early May.
• Only 17% of the homes that went under contract this week in Vienna/Oakton were listed above $800,000.
• The contract rate in Oakton remains fairly stable. While Vienna’s contract rate (with the exception of the 2 weeks surrounding 4th of July) was at the lowest we have seen since early March.
• After last week’s report of low open house attendance, this past weekend saw an increased appearance of “buyers” coming through the doors. Are they “Real Buyers” or just “Lookie-Loos”? Only time will tell.

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, contact The Belt Team for a more in-depth discussion & analysis - because it’s only the neighborhood YOU live in (or you WANT to live in) that matters!

Interest rates have recently dropped to a HISTORICAL LOW.

Several of us on The Belt Team have recently refinanced our mortgages to take advantage of this! And if this is something you are considering, just contact The Belt Team and we will be happy to pass on the names of our excellent local lenders.

But maybe you are wondering whether the market has really “bottomed out” and whether perhaps you should continue waiting to buy, even if this means watching rates go up a little. If this is something you are thinking about, you might want to watch “This Month in Real Estate” for a good explanation of exactly what this may mean for YOU.

Here are last week’s stats for Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 21
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 147 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 35 days
• Inventory: 249 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 2.9 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 2.7 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 6
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 104 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 37 days
• Inventory: 92 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 4.4 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 6.1 months

Notes:

• Inventory in Vienna remains stable this week; while inventory in Oakton continues to rise.
• Only 11% of the homes that went under contract this week in Vienna/Oakton were listed above $800,000.
• Anecdotal information tells us that open house attendance last weekend was down over the previous weeks. This may be a “fluke” or it may signal a slowdown in Buyer interest due to ”end of summer” and “back-to-school” mindsets approaching. Only time will tell!

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, contact The Belt Team for a more in-depth discussion & analysis - because it’s only the neighborhood YOU live in (or you WANT to live in) that matters!

So . . . you know what your neighbors were asking for their home - but what did it actually sell for? Here’s a list of all the settled sales in Vienna, VA (22180, 22181, 22182) for July 2010:

Under $500,000:

• 2592 Glengyle Dr #116 - ($206,500 less a $5,000 subsidy) = $201,500
• 214 Park Terrace Ct #91 - $250,000
• 2443 Glengyle Dr #217 - ($266,000 less a $7,000 subsidy) = $259,000
• 2765 Centerboro Dr #263 - ($339,000 less a $9,324 subsidy = $329,676
• 300B Locust St SE #B - $352,000
• 2925 Cashel Ln - ($370,000 less a $13,000 subsidy) = $357,000
• 8618 Dellway Ln - ($395,000 less a $11,850 subsidy) = $383,150
• 8866 Ashgrove House Ln #201 - $389,000
• 8001 Tyson Oak Cir - ($402,500 less a $10,000 subsidy) = $392,500
• 2966 Cashel Ln - $397,500
• 8417 Wesleyan St - ($430,000 less a $8,600 subsidy) = $421,400
• 2651 Park Tower Dr #304 - $425,000
• 309 Charles St SE - $425,000
• 106 Fardale St SE - ($455,000 less a $10,000 subsidy) = $445,000
• 1597 Leeds Castle Dr #201 - $445,500
• 9656 Glendevy Ct - ($460,000 less a $13,800 subsidy) = $446,200
• 2901 Village Spring Ln - $450,000
• 505 Highland St NW - $450,550
• 110 Yeonas Dr SE - ($465,000 less a $5,000 subsidy) = $460,000
• 9221 Brian Dr - ($492,500 less a $7,500 subsidy) = $485,000

$500,000 to $775,000:

• 9221 Dellwood Dr - $510,000
• 1118 Moorefield Creek Rd - $515,000
• 9232 Brian Dr - ($525,000 less a $500 subdidy) = $524,500
• 111 James Dr SW - $525,000
• 836 Ninovan Rd SE - $525,000
• 2562 Rambling Rd - $530,000
• 1927 Hull Rd - $530,000
• 9804 Brightlea Dr - $539,900
• 9606 Center St - $545,000
• 2425 Villanova Dr - $547,500
• 509 Nelson Dr NE - $550,000
• 2046 Pieris Ct - $560,000
• 1036 Moorefield Creek Rd - $560,000
• 902 Shady Dr SE - ($575,000 less a $10,000 subsidy) = $565,000
• 302 Edwin Ln NE - ($574,950 less a $5,000 subsidy) = $569,950
• 125 Carter Ct SW - $585,000
• 1904 Prelude Dr - $585,000
• 8233 Citadel Pl - $587,500
• 435 Lewis St NW - $600,000
• 2823 Charles Dunn Dr - ($607,700 less a $4,000 subsidy) = $603,700
• 104 Saratoga Way NE - ($610,000 less a $5,000 subsidy) = $605,000
• 920 Ware St SW - $615,000
• 9302 Talisman Dr - $618,000
• 2765 Manhattan Pl - $629,000
• 8605 Aponi Rd - ($639,500 less a $2,350 subsidy) = $637,150
• 1822 St. Roman Dr - $645,000
• 8226 Bell Ln - $650,000
• 8167 Madrillon Ct - $650,000
• 8625 McHenry St - ($675,000 less a $2,000 subsidy) = $673,000
• 2698 Glencroft Rd - ($685,000 less a $11,000 subsidy) = $674,000
• 10306 Saddle View Ct - $675,000
• 1818 Abbotsford Dr - $680,000
• 2111 Sheriff Ct - $690,000
• 2805 Glade Vale - ($700,000 less a $2,500 subsidy) = $697,500
• 10015 Saddle Rd - ($735,000 less a $22,050 subsidy) = $712,950
• 8302 Idylwood Rd - ($740,000 less a $3,000 subsidy) = $737,000
• 9600 Counsellor Dr - ($741,000 less a $2,500 subsidy) = $738,500
• 2621 Amanda Ct - ($761,500 less a $1,158 subsidy) = $760,342

$775,000 to $999,000:

• 102 Windover Ave NW - ($798,990 less a $10,000 subsidy) = $788,990
• 1814 Batten Hollow Rd - $800,000
• 1406 Carrington Ln - $825,000
• 9112 Streamview Ln - $825,500
• 10240 Dunfries Rd - $829,500 (BELT TEAM LISTING SOLD!)
• 2064 Madrillon Rd - ($850,000 less a $15,000 subsidy) = $835,000
• 9606 Podium Dr - ($877,000 less a $2,500 subsidy) = $874,500 (BELT TEAM LISTING SOLD!)
• 10419 Wickens Rd - $880,250
• 207 Tapawingo Rd - $897,000
• 218 Park St NE - $912,000 (BELT TEAM LISTING SOLD AND BELT TEAM BUYER!)
• 10903 Hunter Station Rd - $935,000
• 2191 Amber Meadows Dr - $991,784

$1,000,000 and up:

• 2026 Spring Branch Rd - $1,050,000
• 1265 Cobble Pond Way - $1,085,000
• 9622 Prelude Ct - $1,132,500 (BELT TEAM LISTING SOLD!)
• 1300 Beulah Rd - ($1,175,000 less a $10,000 subsidy = $1,165,000)
• 9105 Lucky Estates Dr - $1,172,000
• 2181 Chain Bridge Rd - $1,210,000
• 9408 Lakeside Dr - $1,276,000 (BELT TEAM BUYER!)
• 1729 Creek Crossing Rd - ($1,300,000 less a $3,930 subsidy) = $1,296,070 (BELT TEAM LISTING SOLD!)
• 10682 Water Falls Ln - $1,300,000
• 8433 Falcone Point Way - $1,450,000
• 1804 Pillory Dr - $1,475,000
• 330 Ayr Hill Dr NE - $2,200,000

Contact The Belt Team for more info about homes in Vienna, VA - 22180, 22181, 22182

Read our blog about “Life In Vienna, VA“

So . . .you know what your neighbors were asking for their home - but what did it actually sell for? Here’s a list of all the settled sales in Oakton (22124) for July 2010:

Under $500,000:

• 10206B Ashbrooke Ct #14 - $250,000
• 10218 Bushman Dr #122 - $305,000
• 3108 Borge St - ($395,000 less a $5,000 subsidy) = $390,000
• 11829 Waples Mill Rd - $400,100
• 10197 Valentino Dr - ($425,000 less a $12,000 subsidy) = $413,000
• 3226 White Flint Ct - ($420,000 less a $4,000 subsidy) = $416,000
• 3142 Borge St - $435,500
• 10131 Village Knolls Ct - ($449,000 less a $8,000 subsidy) = $441,000
• 2939 Oakborough Sq - ($475,000 less a $1,500 subsidy) = $473,500

$500,000 to $775,000:

• 2907 Bree Hill Rd - $580,000
• 9913 Cyrandall Pl - $610,000
• 2929 Aran Ct - $635,000
• 2501 Hollybrook Pl - $645,000
• 10938 Stuart Mill Rd - ($660,000 less a $7,600 subsidy) = $652,400
• 3116 Miller Heights Rd - $665,000
• 11273B Waples Mill Rd - ($675,000 less a $6,000 subsidy) = $669,000
• 3315 Miller Heights Rd - $746,000

$775,000 to $999,000:

• 10808 Melanie Ct - ($839,000 less a $22,000 subsidy) = $817,000
• 10619 Marbury Rd - $820,000
• 10616 Samaga Dr - $832,000
• 12029 Hamden Ct - $955,000
• 3408 Waples Glen Ct - $974,850

$1,000,000 and up:

• 11317 Lapham Dr - $1,150,000
• 3457 Virginia Oaks Dr - $1,250,000
• 10313 Mystic Meadow Dr - ($1,250,000 less a $2,550 subsidy) = $1,247,450
• 3006 Rose Creek Ct - ($1,375,000 less a $15,000 subsidy) = $1,360,000
• 2601 Geneva Hill Ct - $1,475,000

Contact The Belt Team for more info about homes in Oakton - 22124.

Here are last week’s stats for Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 24
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 107 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 49 days
• Inventory: 248 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 2.8 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 2.8 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 4
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 105 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 50 days
• Inventory: 86 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 3.9 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 7.8 months

Notes:

• Inventory in Vienna has dropped 13% in the past month; while inventory in Oakton has increased to a level we have not seen since April.
• Months of housing supply in Vienna remains stable at about 3 months; while Oakton’s supply increased to an almost 8 month supply.

SELLERS: If you are thinking of selling a home in Vienna, NOW may be a good time. Buyers are still in the market and there is NOT a lot to see. If you are thinking of selling a home in Oakton, make sure you discuss pricing strategies in depth with your agent. This is especially important as we have seen the market moving from a Sellers Market to a Balanced Market and we are now approaching a Buyers Market.

BUYERS: If you are looking in Oakton, NOW may be a good time to buy. Inventory is up and there is more to choose from than there has been over the past 3 months. If you are looking in Vienna, be ready to move when you see something you like as inventory is continuing to trend down.

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, contact The Belt Team for a more in-depth discussion & analysis - because it’s only the neighborhood YOU live in (or you WANT to live in) that matters!

Well, it looks like the Vienna Oakton real estate market may be approaching balance (at least for now . . . !) 

Here are last week’s stats for Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 19
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 101 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 45 days
• Inventory: 266 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 2.9 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 3.6 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 3
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 112 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 267 days
• Inventory: 79 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate):  3.3 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate):  5.6 months

Notes:

• Both inventory & the weekly number of contracts continue to trend downward in Vienna/Oakton.
• The trend in months supply of homes in Vienna (currently 3.6 months based on the contract rate over the past 30 days) shows us moving from a Sellers Market to a Balanced Market.
• The months supply of homes in Oakton (5.6 months based on the contract rate over the past 30 days) shows that we have just about reached a Balanced Market in Oakton.
• Only 14% of the homes that went under contract this week were listed above $800,000. This is the lowest percentage so far in 2010

Sellers

This means you need to really make sure you are pricing your home “to market” - not last month’s or last year’s - but this week’s & next month’s! 31% of the homes currently on the market in Vienna have been on the market for over 101 days (the current average days on market in Vienna.) One home has even been for sale for 818 days (more than 2 YEARS!). This is what happens when you price your home based on what you paid, what you need, or what you “think” your home is worth - as opposed to what the “market” is NOW.

Buyers

Be ready to move when the home you love comes on the market. Some price ranges have more available than others, but many are sparse. As an example, Buyers looking in Vienna between $900,000 and $1,000,000 would only find 12 homes to look at. So if you have already seen what’s on the market, and are just waiting for that “perfect home” - be ready to act quickly when you see it!

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, contact The Belt Team for a more in-depth discussion & analysis - because it’s only the neighborhood YOU live in (or you WANT to live in) that matters!